Can it hold itself together?
the physical floorMachines, roads, and buildings break a little every day. Below this floor, they break faster than they can be replaced, no matter what you do.
A working paper signed by Argentina's president | July 2026
How small is too small?
Javier Milei runs Argentina and, on the side, publishes mathematical economics. His new paper, written with Demian Reidel, reaches an uncomfortable conclusion: some economies are big enough to live, yet too small for the climb to be worth it. For them, decline can be the rational choice.
The paper does not measure Argentina and places no real country on the map. It proves something more general and more unsettling: surviving and being doomed can be the same thing.
1
sitting president as author
3
thresholds an economy has to clear
40
pages of proofs
3.28M
inequalities checked by computer, so the proof does not run on trust
Minimum Viable Scale
Extinction and Escape under Increasing Returns
The idea, in one image
Picture a plane on a runway. Below takeoff speed, it can taxi forever without lifting an inch. To take off, it has to burn an enormous amount of fuel just to accelerate. And if the engine is too weak for the required speed, the rational pilot does not even try: he taxis economically until the fuel runs out.
The paper proves that economies can work the same way. There is a minimum takeoff speed. Below it, you can taxi. But you cannot fly.
The three questions
The model asks every economy three questions, in order. Each no keeps it on the runway.
Is it worth investing in?
the return floorAn economy can survive and still return too little to justify the wait. The paper shows this floor sits above bare survival.
Is it worth aiming high?
the global thresholdFrom what point on does ambition beat both stagnation and giving up? This is where the computer-verified proof comes in: above this threshold, the climb wins, guaranteed.
Decide an economy's fate
Choose how much capital an economy starts with and how bad the productivity crisis that hits it is. The paper's model delivers the verdict on the spot.
How to read this
- The K point is your economy. Move it along the runway.
- The color underneath is the verdict.
Demonstration model: A = 10.04, δ = 0.7, L = 0.88
Try:
Choose initial capital on a logarithmic scale.
Choose the severity of the crisis.
From here, the computer-verified proof guarantees it: accelerating beats both taxiing in place and giving up. Ambition becomes mathematically correct.
κ
0.05
2
Ksus
K>
dies
the trap
takeoff
airborne
Why it matters who wrote this
Papers in mathematical economics appear by the hundreds. This one has a particularity: the lead author runs a country.
The author holds the controls
A president in the middle of economic shock treatment publishes a model about economies that die or take off. It is a direct window into how he thinks.
The proof asks for no trust
The conclusions are checked by computer, inequality by inequality. You can distrust the author. The proof stands.
The map has no countries on it yet
For Argentina or anyone else, the thresholds would first have to be measured. The paper only says what to measure.
What the paper does not say
Four things the text does not claim, however tempting it is to attribute them to it.
It does not say Argentina is below threshold
The model is proven on economies built as examples, with no real data about any country.
It does not describe a real economy
The problem is solved for an ideal planner. Real firms, prices, and markets are left for the next paper.
It does not prove collapses
Where the guarantee is lost, the honest conclusion is only this: we no longer know for sure. The model does not prove disaster.
It does not say who pays for the climb
Transition costs, coordinating institutions, and social protections sit outside the model.
Sources
The values, intervals, and formulas used in the map come from the paper. Political context is limited to verifiable markers about the presidency and economic program.
- Javier Milei and Demian Reidel. "Minimum Viable Scale: Extinction and Escape under Increasing Returns." Working paper, July 2026, pp. 1-40. PDF source.
- Associated Press. "Argentina's president announces economy deregulation as thousands protest against austerity." December 20, 2023. Link.
- Associated Press. "In key milestones for President Milei, Argentina secures IMF deal and ends most capital controls." April 11, 2025. Link.
Status: the paper is treated as the primary document. The labels "the trap", "takeoff", and "airborne" are editorial reading labels built from the taxonomy and intervals in the document.